Our 2024 Q4 Pulse of Lighting report, which also forecasted a slow, but positive, Q1 followed by a more robust 2025 seemingly did not take into account what appears to be a rollercoaster Q1.
From early returns to our Q1 2025 Pulse of Lighting survey, some see activity in the marketplace, at least for some of their customers, but many have seen either a pullback or, perhaps best described as, indecision.
The quarter started with bad weather in many parts of the country. From freezing cold to snow … and yes, snow in Florida, New Orleans, Texas, and yes, even here in Raleigh, NC (multiple times). It was further impacted by the travesty of the LA wildfires.
While Mother Nature had her way with the construction market, political winds from Washington, DC are also causing trepidation. Consider:
- Tariffs on China … twice.
- On, then off, then on, then off / delayed, to we have to wait until early April tariffs on Canada and Mexico
- Tariffs on imported steel and aluminum
- A maybe tariff on copper
- And don’t forget that there could be tariffs coming on the EU
But this is only part of the concern that is impacting the lighting industry. Other politically-influenced changes include:
- Department budget cuts that impact the federal real estate footprint impacts renovations and potentially construction.
- Budget freezes and cuts, could impact federally funded projects
- Elimination, or best case, downsizing, of the Education department could influence funding and possibly bond backing, which could impact education construction.
- NIH budget reduction, and probably CDC, will ripple to medical research / lab space construction.
- Discussion of Defense Department cuts will impact procurement and potentially construction and industrial investment plans of companies.
And there are more second and third derivative implications, with many unknown … all that create indecision, and businesses don’t like indecision as it makes them delay plans.
Plus, you know I am forgetting something, if not much.
Further, we’re hearing:
- Some manufacturers “holding” pricing until May or June … which basically tells you they have material in their warehouse / that has no tariff impact.
- Some major ones already have announced mid to upper single digit increases
- Some distributors who did some extra “stock” buying
- Some contractors who moved project ordering up to get in front of tariffs
With this as a background, our Q1 Pulse of Lighting survey is now open. We need your responses by Thursday, March 20th.
If you can share 1-2 minutes to complete the confidential survey, we’ll share a copy of the results with you shortly thereafter.
Will it really be a brighter 2025? If you’d like a complimentary copy of the 2024 Q4 / 2025 Outlook report, email me.
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