2026 Q3 Pulse of Lighting … Slow Market? Q4 Outlook

David Gordon Posted On September 11, 2026

With Labor Day passing we get ready to look towards the end of the year (only 71 working days left), taking a breath (101 days to Christmas), closing the year strong and planning for 2027!

But, before we leave Q3, it’s time for our Q3 Pulse of Lighting survey.

If you recall, you shared in our Q2 report that the market was down a little. Your forecasted Q3 being up low to middle single digits driven by backlog fulfillment. There was also some optimism as, on the geopolitical front, there were discussions with Iran and people felt that the economy would improve (lower fuel costs, lower interest rates, etc.).

But the geopolitical environment has turned. Fuel costs are up. Interest rates are up.

At the same time, we hear:

Business is strong for those benefiting from data centers.
Distributors reporting higher sales due to increased commodity prices (copper) but this may or may not be reflected in units (refer to point #1)
Residential is dependent upon multi-family, where you are located, some renovation, and the luxury home market.
The education market reported growth, with lighting retrofits over the summer (but the kids are now back to school.)
Healthcare in many markets has construction activity
Infrastructure projects continue with most being funded years ago

And more specifically on lighting …

Projects are slow to release for a myriad of reasons … from funding to approvals
Much VEing and requoting
For manufacturers, inconsistency in order rate
Distributor inventory is better “managed” than ever due to SKU reduction and manufacturers being able to ship quickly.
Interest in “connected ready” fixtures (which may or may not result in lighting control system implementation at this time.)

I’ve also seen much “people movement” from manufacturers. Whether that is companies downsizing personnel, seeking change for change’s sake, or performance issues, it is difficult to tell.

There were also some minor manufacturer acquisitions, some lighting agent consolidation, and the quarter started with people dissecting Signify’s Capital Markets Day.

So, the question is, how was your Q3 and how are you seeing the year ending.

Our Q3 Pulse of Lighting survey is now open. We 1-3 minutes of your time by Friday, September 18^th, and we’ll be able to share a free industry report with you at the end of the month so you can benchmark Q3 against the industry and have some insights into Q4.