2nd half forecast

Recently we’ve spoken with a number of distributors, manufacturers and some reps regarding their second half outlook.  Unfortunately, it’s not anything to write home about.


As many may remember from the last issue of Electrical Wholesaling, Herm Isenstein (DISC), wrote that they year should end up with a 6% increase, however, the first half would be much stronger than the second half.  He wrote “we are also confident that the strongest performance has already occurred in the first half of this year. We expect much weaker growth in the coming six months.”


Unfortunately for many, Herm is projecting to be right again.


Many that we have spoken with over the past couple of week’s have said that their business, YTD, is still up but that business has tailed off.  For some with OEM business, the tail started in April (which coincides with the EU and China economic slowdown).  Others have reported that May and June have seen declines.  Others are reporting decreasing levels of growth (smaller percentage increases).


But all is not gloom.  We’ve spoken to other distributors, albeit in larger cities that are still experiencing growth and are involved in energy efficiency, that are experiencing double digit growth (and some in the 20%+ range.)


Manufacturers are all over the board and the difference, for the most part, is whether they are a broad-based product offering (read commodity) or in a growth application (energy) or perhaps a niche line (serving the industrial market).  Some are growing but don’t necessarily know why as they’ve had a number of initiatives that are being effective.


Knowing Herm, his number will be right, nationally, however, ever market is a local market. There are ways to take share versus leaving your destiny to the whims of the market.


Let us know what you’re projecting in the survey on the right.


What are you seeing for the remainder of the year?